 Speech by JCP representative at international seminar held in Beijing Conditions and Possibilities for Socialist Change in the 21st Century The following is a translation of a paper entitled "Conditions and Possibilities for Socialist Changes in the 21st Century", submitted by Kachi Tadashi, Japanese Communist Party Central Committee member and a board member of the JCP's Social Sciences Institute, to an international seminar held in Beijing in commemoration of the 100th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping's birth under the theme "Development and Innovation: Socialism at the Beginning of the 21st Century": In line with the theme of this symposium, I would like to talk about the JCP's view regarding conditions and possibilities for socialist changes in the 21st century by giving an overview of the JCP Program revised in January 2004. 1. World's Structure Has Changed in the 20th Century In examining conditions and possibilities for changes toward socialism in the 21st century, we think it significant to see the great changes which took place during the 100 years of the 20th century. The 20th century began with world domination by monopoly capitalism and imperialism. This century saw two world wars, as well as domination by militarism and fascism, the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the wars against Vietnam and Afghanistan. The terrible devastation covered every corner of the world. In light of these facts, the century could be described as one of continuous bitter hardships for humankind. But now at the beginning of the 21st century, looking back on the past 100 years, we notice that epoch-making great changes developed for human history through the tenacious struggles and efforts of peoples throughout the world. In a word, the world's structure has greatly changed in the past 100 years. Collapse of the colonial system and the U.N. call for an international order for peace The greatest change was the collapse of the colonial system. At the beginning of the 20th century, a large majority of the nations were excluded from a role in international politics as colonized and dependent countries. Now these countries are actively involved in international politics as independent countries, which in turn has created new international situation for the 21st century. Amid these changes, new relationships in international politics developed to never again allow colonial domination. Accordingly the monopoly capitalist countries have no other way to drastically change the way they function. The newly independent countries joined the conference of the non-aligned countries, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) and other organizations, carrying more weight and playing a bigger role in seeking a peaceful world based on national self-determination. The founding of the United Nations was also an important event in the 20th century and the U.N. Charter asserted the principle that "wars are illegal." The U.N. Charter stipulated that interference in another country's affairs should not be allowed, that use of force should be based on a U.N. decision, and that unilateral military action should not be allowed except in the case of counter attack in self-defense against aggression. These provisions aimed at implementing the policy that "wars are illegal" and establishing an international order for peace to prevent wars from taking place. What I want to point to here is that an international order for peace, the declared goal of the United Nations, accords with the direction which the movement of scientific socialism aims for. Marx in the Inaugural Address of the 1st International (Working Men's Association) said, "to vindicate the simple laws of morals and justice, which ought to govern the relations of private individuals, as the rules paramount in the intercourse of nations"; in other words, the "principles of morals and justice" that citizens should observe in relations with neighbors should be made principles that govern the relations between nations. He thus called for establishing an international society with such rules. I think the idea of the international order for peace that the U.N. Charter calls for provides the principles of the "intercourse of nations" which accords with Marx's statement in this regard. 'Coexistence of the two systems' -- Important development in the world situation in the 20th century The second point I want to look at regarding structural changes in the world in the 20th century is the question of the "coexistence of the two systems." At the beginning of the 20th century, capitalism was the only system that controlled the world. In the course of history, a new current for socialism started and we moved into the age where the two systems coexisted. This became the most important characteristic of the 20th century. This characteristic, namely the coexistence of the two systems, did not end with the collapse of the regimes in the Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries. Currents toward socialism in the 20th century continued in China, Vietnam and Cuba. At the beginning of the 21st century, we see new developments in the coexistence of the two systems. "Advancing toward socialism through a market economy," a new search for socialism that China and Vietnam are pursuing, is very significant. China's population is 1.3 billion and Vietnam's 80 million, totaling nearly 1.4 billion. The development in this region with such a huge population has become an important factor triggering a further change in the structure of the world. Each country has its own developmental stage in history with political and economic problems to be solved. But brisk nation-building efforts by China and Vietnam in recent years based on "advancing toward socialism through the market economy" will not only increase their economic weight in the world, but will surely constitute significant currents in the 21st century world. 2. Where Is the World Heading? In viewing the world situation in the 21st century, we anticipate that currents toward a new society overcoming capitalism will emerge in different forms in various regions in the world. The earth is home to 6.3 billion people. They live in more than 190 countries and can be divided into four groups. (1) The first is the group of "developed capitalist countries" to which Japan belongs. Those counted in this group are Japan, European countries, the United States, Canada, Australia and other countries, with a total population of 900 million, just one seventh of the world's population. (2) The second is the group of "countries aiming for socialism," including China, Vietnam and Cuba. They are still few in number, but the total population reaches 1.4 billion, 500 million more than that of the group of the "developed capitalist countries." (3) Third, those accounting for the majority of the world's population is the group of countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. At the beginning of the 20th century, these countries were still colonized and dependent countries, but at the latter part of the century they won independence one after another, and now have a powerful say in world politics. Their total population stands at 3.5 billion, accounting for almost 60% of the world's population. (4) The last is the group of countries which once held up the banner of "socialism" but took a deviant path under Stalin's leadership, suffering the collapse of their regimes at the beginning of the 1990s. Their aggregate population stands at more than 400 million. We are not in a position to know in detail the current situation in these countries, but generally speaking, once vociferous voices for "capitalism being the panacea" have become subdued and socio-economic contradictions in these countries have deepened. We also pay attention to this trend. In short, compared to the 900 million population of the developed capitalist countries, the population of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, added to that of those countries aiming for socialism, amounts to 4.9 billion, and the remainder stands at 400 million. Looking back on international politics in this way, it is very clear that the age where few countries move the world has already become a thing of the past. As regards the U.S. war against Iraq, even the U.S. government said that the number of countries that supported the war was just 10 among the developed capitalist countries and 23 among Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, including island countries in the Pacific, each with a population of just 10,000 to 100,000, in addition to 16 from other areas, totaling 49 with an aggregate population of just 1.2 billion. Our expectation is that the characteristic of the 21st century will be the rise from among these groups of currents moving toward a new society working to overcome capitalism. 3. Capitalist Contradictions Are Sharper and on a Larger Scale Than Ever This is because world capitalism today is faced with serious contradictions that will eventually lead to a new form of society in the future. The contradictions of present-day capitalism are showing up with new characteristics the world has never seen before. The revised JCP Program characterized them as "Capitalism's contradictions arising from its inability to control the enormously developed productive powers," and enumerated a number of their examples. --the widening gap between rich and poor both within each country and on a global scale --the economic system is caught in repeated economic recessions and massive unemployment, with no way out --air pollution and other global destruction of environmental conditions, which is becoming more serious year after year --an enormous number of people, children and adults alike, starve to death in a wide area on the globe Contradictions in capitalism at the time of Marx were largely characterized by widening gaps between rich and poor due to exploitation and plunder as well as by economic recessions and depressions arising from anarchy in production. But today's contradictions brought about by capitalist production with "production for the sake of production" as a watchword, are aggravating the global extent of the contradictions. Widening gap between rich and poor on a global scale The U.S.Department of Commerce recently noted an increase in the poverty group in the United States. The gap between rich and poor is widening both in the United States and Japan. The world is also paying attention to the fact that toward the end of the 20th century the gap between rich and poor is widening on a global scale. According to a recent report of the International Labor Organization (ILO), the gap in income between the top 20% and the bottom 20% in the world has widened from 30-1 in 1960 to 74-1 in 1999. This is grave, demonstrating the deepening contradictions in profit-first capitalism. What is more serious, the number of "extreme poor" who live on less than a dollar a day is increasing in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union). In the Sub-Saharan region, those who live on less than a dollar a day increased from 241 million people in 1990 to 315 million in 1999. According to the statistics of the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), the number of poor and starving people has increased in 54 countries and in 21 countries, respectively, compared to 1990. More children are dying before they became five years of age in 14 countries. Moreover, average life expectancy has decreased in 34 countries. The UNDP states that such a deterioration in conditions for survival has never been seen before. Anarchy of capitalist production threatens life on the earth As regards the anarchy of capitalist production, added to repeated recessions and depressions, the global destruction of environmental conditions demonstrates the sharpest contradictions of the capitalist economic system with its profit-first principle. The earth came into existence 4.6 billion years ago. It took it 3 billion years to create the air and ozone layers for human beings and other species to live. But the capitalist economic system is drastically destroying, during its just over 100 years of history, the "life support system" created by nature, with global warming arising from the accumulation of air pollution as well as destruction of ozone layers by chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Many researchers and people across the world are now asking a fundamental question: "Can life and capitalism coexist peacefully?" A strong indictment against the economic system with the profit-first principle would develop conditions on a global scale for the emergence of a new system that could overcome capitalism. JCP Central Committee Chairman Tetsuzo FUWA once commented on the global destruction of the environment: "In a sense, it is more serious than economic recessions and depressions," and indicted it by saying, "Capitalism has already lost the ability to control the earth." We regard the global destruction of the environment as a problem that calls into question the continued existence of the capitalist system, and refer to it in the JCP Program. That the capitalist economic system is unable to control the enormously developed productive powers and the inherent contradictions in the system has manifested itself sharper than ever, not only in the capitalist countries but also on a global scale. 4. Different Forms of Political Change Are in Store in Each Area As I said, capitalism in the 21st century is faced with many contradictions which will eventually lead a new form of society in the future. We feel the path toward it will differ in form from each area and from one country to another. Based on the position for step-by-step advance of society A socialist society will not be born from capitalist society in one leap. Looking back on history, human societies have developed step by step, addressing problems when the time is ripe, then proceeding to tackle new problems. Through settling immediate problems, the forces working for social advancement acquire a subjective strength, creating conditions to advance to the next stage. Since it adopted its original Program 43 years ago, the JCP has made clear its position for the step-by-step advance of society. Showing to the people a grand perspective toward socialism, we have made efforts to identify the problems facing the people in need of solutions in present Japanese society. We attached importance to the following contradictions in Japanese society: First, Japan is a highly developed capitalist country, but is virtually a dependent country, with an important part of its land, military matters and other affairs of state being controlled by the United States; second, the tyrannical behavior of large corporations and business circles stands out among all capitalist countries. "Unpaid overtime work," an illegal form of exploitation, is rampant in many companies, and we do not even have laws regulating layoffs, unlike the European countries. Based on this realistic analysis, the JCP has reached a conclusion that the change we need now in Japanese society is not a choice between capitalism and socialism, but carrying out a democratic revolution within the framework of capitalism. Only after this can we bring forward to the people the next challenge of advancing toward socialism. The approach based on this step-by-step theory has been verified through the party's 43-year history of activities. Challenges faced in the developed capitalist countries differ from one country to another. The JCP policy was adopted based on its independent analysis of the Japanese situation. At the same time, we believe the policy to counter capital's outrageous activities and oppression with a program for a democratic reform can be applicable in other circumstances. 'Toward socialism through a market economy' has universal value in a broader sense In advancing toward socialist transformation after achieving a democratic revolution, we attach importance to the path "toward socialism through a market economy." There are two reasons for this. First, the experience of the Russian revolution led by Lenin. At the beginning Lenin thought that socialism and a market economy are incompatible and that scientific socialism negates the market economy. From this position Lenin, ignoring the will of farmers who made up the majority of Russian society in those days, moved toward building "wartime communism," a society built on a controlled economy. This policy caused serious contradictions in Russian society. Lenin learned lessons from this experience, and after many twists and turns, he introduced the New Economic Policy (NEP), or "socialism through a market economy." This path was discarded in the Stalin era, but Lenin's propositions are full of good lessons to be applied even today. Second, this path is being sought today in China and Vietnam since their realities necessitate it. It is demonstrating economic vitality, and we believe that this path has a universal value in a broader sense. Take countries like Japan where the capitalist market economy is highly developed, for example. When socialism is sought for in such a country, a socialist sector would be born in the market economy, and as its effectiveness and superiority would be examined in the market economy, it would gradually increase its weight and strength. This would be the process. How it will proceed and in what form will differ from one country to another, but the process "toward socialism through a market economy" is something many countries can have in common as the basic outline. This is our view. The road ahead toward socialism will have many twists and turns, but we are sure that the path toward "socialism through a market economy" will be a major current which will have a bearing on the progress of history. A new path for a social development is being sought also in the AALA regions The Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin American regions occupy a large area of the globe. People there are also seeking a new path for social developments in place of capitalism. In particular, recent changes in Latin America, traditionally called "U.S.'s backyard," is worth our attention. While criticism mounts against U.S. political pressure, its economic policy based on the law of the jungle as well as its "neoliberalist policy," self-reliant and progressive currents in the interests of the people are gathering speed in Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador and other countries in Latin America. The United States once boasted that in Latin America people could modernize society only by taking a capitalist road under the "U.S. umbrella." But the widening gap between North and South and rampant financial speculations in the latter half of the 20th century demonstrated that there is no future for the road for modernization under the U.S. economic policy. In this way, serious gropings for a new form of nation building have begun in Asia, Africa and Latin America. We would like to keep a close watch on this development. 5. International Conditions for Currents toward Socialism in the 21st Century We believe that in the 21st century, currents toward new societies overcoming capitalism will be developed in various parts in the world. In the developed capitalist countries, contradictions are serious with economic recession and depressions and with environmental deterioration; these contradictions will grow into one that will call into question the viability of the capitalist system itself. Undertaking moves toward "socialism through a market economy" in the "countries aiming for socialism" has just begun, but it is attracting the world's attention. In our view, the political and economic weight in the world of these countries has already surpassed that of the former Soviet Union at the beginning of the 20th century when it was established. Also in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, many people are looking forward to seeing a new form of society replacing capitalism. It does not necessarily mean that these voices are directly linked to a movement toward socialism, but here is one of the currents in the 21st century which could lead to a prospect for structural change. Also, in the former Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries, different from 10 years ago when the former regimes collapsed, there are widespread concerns among the people whether the capitalist road will provide hope for socially just nation building. We see deepening contradictions that could lead to basic structural changes also in this region. We believe that these currents, being interconnected and inspired by each other, will form a turbulent movement in the 21st century. In this situation we are convinced that by working steadily to open up Japan's future we will be able to contribute to the progress of the movement toward socialism in the 21st century. Thank you. (end) |