Tricky argument about ‘Chinese threat'

Japan Press Weekly

Japan Press Service Co., Ltd. is the only news agency providing information of progressive, democratic movements in Japan

Alliance of Subordination

Where is Japan-US Security Treaty heading? -- Part II

Tricky argument about ‘Chinese threat'

The argument that "China is a threat" has rapidly surfaced as the pretext to maintain and strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance. However, the Japanese government has not officially recognized China as a threat. It instead declares that Japan has strategic reciprocal relations with China. However, the "China as threat" argument is being cautiously and skillfully spread to the general public.

Biggest excuse

Since the late 1980s, China has been making rapid economic progress. Its gross domestic product (GDP) vies with Japan for the second position in the world.

Along with its economic growth, China's military spending is said to have made a double-digit rate growth year on year for 21 years in a row. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its 2010 yearbook shows that Chinese military expenditures in 2009 amount to 100 billion dollars, which is nearly twice that of Japan. This is used as the biggest reason for the Chinese threat argument and for maintaining Japan's military expenditures.

In retrospect, Japan in its economic growth period from the 1970s to the 1990s pursued a more rapid arms buildup than in China at present. It is Japan and the United States that have led the military buildup in Northeast Asia.

Even Ishiba Shigeru, Liberal Democratic Party Policy Research Council chair (former Defense Minister) and hardliner against China, admitted that the growth in China's military spending alone does not make it a "threat". Most of it is presumably used for pay raises for servicemen (at a symposium in Tokyo on December 8, 2009).

The Japanese government is calling into question Chinese "intentions".

U.S. military bases in Japan were originally regarded as U.S. footholds for the defense of Taiwan. A military balance between mainland China and Taiwan has been a matter of constant U.S. attention.

At the time of Taiwan's presidential election in March 1993, China carried out military exercises in the Taiwan Straits on a large scale, and two U.S. carrier-based task forces, including units from U.S. Yokota-based forces (Kanagawa Prefecture), were sent for the purpose of intimidation. This was what was called the Taiwan Straits crisis. However, China-Taiwan relations have greatly improved since then. The amount of trade between China and Taiwan is at a record high, and the free trade agreement between China and Taiwan was concluded on June 29 this year as part of increased bilateral relations.

‘Reclaiming' isolated islands

New developments began in 2004. The Japanese government revised the Defense Program Outline in late 2004 and began calling for the need to respond to an invasion of isolated islands. The calls were made with a possibility in mind that China may occupy the Senkaku Islands and other isolated islands. From 2005, landing drills by the Ground Self-Defense Force and the U.S. Marine Corps began with the scenario of "recapturing isolated islands from China". This type of war game practice made the GSDF more like the U.S. Marine Corps.

The 2009 Defense White Paper under the Liberal Democratic-Komei government pointed out that China's naval activities increased, particularly in the seas near Okinawa. It stated that these activities are aimed at obtaining, maintaining, and protecting maritime interests, including offshore gas fields in the East China Sea. The Democratic Party of Japan government maintained this view, and asserted that the U.S. Marine Corps has geo-political reasons to be stationed in Okinawa. The government included a budget to increase equipment for the SDF stationed in the south-west islands in its budget request for FY 2011. This provides an even bigger pretext to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance.

The question is: Is the scenario of a possible military confrontation arising from China's maritime advance viable?

(To be continued)

- Akahata, August 30, 2010