‘North Korean threat’ argument

Japan Press Weekly

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50 years of Japan-U.S. Alliance
Where is Japan-US Security Treaty heading? - Part IV

‘North Korean threat’ argument

“What has unfolded here over the last few days in the sea, shore and the skies of ROK is a very strong and powerful signal to those who threaten the security and stability of our special alliance and this region.”

Free access to the Korean Peninsula

This remark was made by Dan Cloyd, commander of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier George Washington strike group, regarding the outcome of the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise “Invincible Spirit” that took place from July 25 to 28, 2010.

The bilateral military exercise mainly took place in the Sea of Japan as a countermeasure to the sinking of a South Korean patrol boat on March 26, which the South Korean government claims was done by North Korea. In addition to the George Washington strike group homeporting in Yokosuka (Kanagawa Pref.), many U.S. military units stationed in Japan took part in the joint military exercise, including combat attack forces from the Iwakuni base (Yamaguchi Pref.) and F-22A stealth fighter jets temporarily based in the Kadena base (Okinawa Pref.).

The Korean War, started in 1950, was the start point for the U.S. to strengthen its military presence and capabilities in Japan. During the process of the 1960 revision of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, the Japanese and U.S. governments concluded a secret agreement to allow the U.S. to bypass a prior bilateral consultation to send its forces from Japan in case of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula. Together with the secret agreement on entry of nuclear weapons into Japan, this is an important arrangement secretly made between the two governments during this period.

Not imminent

This process illustrates that the Korean War has an important bearing on the establishment of the Japan-U.S. security structure. However, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has dramatically changed since then, thus providing almost no chance for Japan and the U.S. to exercise their military power in the region.

The Research Institute for Peace and Security, a think-tank closely related to the Japanese Defense Ministry, stated in a report published in September 2007 that the probability seems to be low for the outbreak of a full-scale invasion such as took place during the Korean War, even when considering how unusual the stance of the North Korean leadership may be. This recognition is widely shared by many experts.

How about the possibility of North Korea’s first use of nuclear weapons? Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry, when visiting Japan in the fall of last year, stated that North Korea is fully aware that its use of nuclear weapons is a suicidal action. The actual threat is not a nuclear attack by the North but a nuclear unaccountability due to a collapse of its regime, he added.

On January 11 this year, North Korea’s foreign ministry published a statement calling for talks to be promptly conducted to have the armistice agreement turned into a peace agreement within this year which marks the 60 anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. The statement indicated the potential of the resumption of the Six Party Talks in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

(To be continued)
- Akahata, September 2, 2010