January 3, 2025
The world has entered a new year. Last year, 2024, was a year of great upheaval in many countries. In 2025, Japan will continue to face various diplomatic challenges.
On December 3 of last year, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol suddenly declared martial law. However, met with fierce public resistance, he was forced to lift the law before dawn of the next day. The National Assembly passed an impeachment motion against him, leading to the Yoon government ceasing to function properly. The U.S.-led cooperation between Japan, the U.S., and South Korea once again has become uncertain.
The Assad regime in Syria, which had been in power for 24 years, also collapsed. The end of the dictatorship is welcome, but what direction the interim government will take is uncertain at this point. The concern is interference by major powers.
Looking at the seven major countries (G7), the governments of France, Germany, and Canada were also weakened. Japan is no exception as well. Last year’s general election turned Japan’s Ishiba government into a minority ruling party.
Under these circumstances, in the United States, Donald Trump is to return to power. President-elect Trump with his “America First” policy will once again use U.S. influence over other countries. Reportedly, he is preparing to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, an international framework to combat global warming. Combined with changes in the domestic situation of each country, what will happen to the international community is unpredictable.
Blatant arms buildups
The incoming Trump administration is likely to request its allies, including Japan, to increase their military spending from the current 2% of GDP to at least 3% of GDP.
Japan, for many years, has kept its military spending within 1% of GDP in accordance with the spirit of its Constitution which declares to the world that Japan shall never again be a military state. The direct trigger that broke through this barrier came from the first Trump administration’s Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper. He demanded that all U.S. allies keep their military spending above “2% of GDP”.
Trump nominated Elbridge Colby to serve as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby bluntly said, 2% of GDP is “a joke” and added that Japan should quickly spend around 3% on defense.
Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru intends to visit the United States after February to build a relationship of trust with Trump. Nagashima Akihisa, a special advisor to PM Ishiba, has met with key figures in the incoming Trump administration. Nagashima said, “In the future, Japan must increase its defense expenditures beyond 2%,” according to the Mainichi Shimbun dated December 5, 2024. Ishiba also stated, “The more severe the security environment is, the more it is necessary for Japan to boost military spending,” at a meeting of the Upper House Budget Committee on December 6 of last year. Their statements indicate that they will step forward with a further arms buildup under the U.S. thumb at the expense of the people’s livelihoods.
It is essential to arouse public opinion so as not to allow a major military buildup. What stance each opposition party will take on this matter should be carefully watched.
Nuclear deterrence questioned
Another question is whether Japan’s Ishiba government, as the government of the only A-bombed country in the world, can play a role in international efforts to achieve a “world without nuclear weapons” without submitting to the demands of the United States.
Clinging to the U.S. nuclear umbrella, the Japanese government refuses to sign and ratify the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and even refuses to participate as an observer in the Conference of the State Parties to the treaty.
Allies which are under the U.S. nuclear umbrella one after another decided to attend meetings of TPNW state parties as observers, creating a situation that should incentivize Japan to join as an observer as well. Ishiba at a meeting of the Lower House Budget Committee on December 11, 2024 said, “I will verify (Japan’s observer participation) after carefully reading the minutes of the previous meetings.” The third meeting of State Parties to the TPNW will take place in New York in March. The international community is paying close attention to what decision Japan will make.
Make genuine friendship
As was mentioned earlier, dysfunction in the South Korean government may exert a significant impact on the relationship between Japan and South Korea.
Under the Yoon administration, Japan-South Korea relations showed “improvement”. However, it can be safely said that this “improvement” chiefly came out of the U.S. Biden administration’s intent to strengthen the military collaboration between the three countries to counter China and North Korea. As this year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII, the need is for Japan to establish a genuine friendship with South Korea, in addition to overcoming the unsettled, negative legacy of wartime Japan’s invasion and colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula.
Vicious cycle of military buildups
Regarding Japan-China relations, Prime Minister Ishiba, in an article which he released on the website of a U.S. conservative think tank just before he took office, proposed to create an “Asian version of NATO” which appears to be a suggestion to form an anti-China encirclement. He used China as the biggest excuse to go forward with a huge military buildup. China, as well, continues enhancing its conventional and nuclear forces. The vicious cycle of “military against military” has been accelerated.
On the other hand, after the inauguration of the Ishiba administration, the two nations’ leaders and foreign ministers held talks on November 15 and December 25, respectively. They confirmed that the two governments will promote a “strategic and mutually beneficial relationship” which includes an agreement to “not become a threat to each other”. Altghough the two countries have territorial and other pending issues, every issue can be solved peacefully. Japan and China should work to advance their diplomatic ties.
The U.S side is further hyping up the “China threat”. The U.S. military projects that China will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027, and uses this forecast as the biggest pretext to increase its military capability and alliance in the Indo-Pacific region. What Japan should do is not to push the military integration of Japan and the U.S. with a “Taiwan emergency” in mind, but to work on Washington and Beijing with a firm determination to “prevent war from erupting again”.
Put end to catastrophic wars: international community’s greatest challenge
The international community’s greatest challenge is to put an end to catastrophic wars: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip in Palestine.
Concerning Israel’s military operation in Gaza, the Japanese government voted for the UNGA resolutions demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and calling for Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories. The Japanese government also took a stance to condemn Israel for sabotaging the activities of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) which are said to be Gaza residents’ “lifeline”.
If this is the case, the Japanese government should earnestly make diplomatic efforts to implement these resolutions. More importantly, it should urge the U.S. to stop providing military aid to Israel without delay. There is no justification for Japan’s intent to purchase Israeli-made drones.
On December 3 of last year, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol suddenly declared martial law. However, met with fierce public resistance, he was forced to lift the law before dawn of the next day. The National Assembly passed an impeachment motion against him, leading to the Yoon government ceasing to function properly. The U.S.-led cooperation between Japan, the U.S., and South Korea once again has become uncertain.
The Assad regime in Syria, which had been in power for 24 years, also collapsed. The end of the dictatorship is welcome, but what direction the interim government will take is uncertain at this point. The concern is interference by major powers.
Looking at the seven major countries (G7), the governments of France, Germany, and Canada were also weakened. Japan is no exception as well. Last year’s general election turned Japan’s Ishiba government into a minority ruling party.
Under these circumstances, in the United States, Donald Trump is to return to power. President-elect Trump with his “America First” policy will once again use U.S. influence over other countries. Reportedly, he is preparing to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, an international framework to combat global warming. Combined with changes in the domestic situation of each country, what will happen to the international community is unpredictable.
Blatant arms buildups
The incoming Trump administration is likely to request its allies, including Japan, to increase their military spending from the current 2% of GDP to at least 3% of GDP.
Japan, for many years, has kept its military spending within 1% of GDP in accordance with the spirit of its Constitution which declares to the world that Japan shall never again be a military state. The direct trigger that broke through this barrier came from the first Trump administration’s Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper. He demanded that all U.S. allies keep their military spending above “2% of GDP”.
Trump nominated Elbridge Colby to serve as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby bluntly said, 2% of GDP is “a joke” and added that Japan should quickly spend around 3% on defense.
Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru intends to visit the United States after February to build a relationship of trust with Trump. Nagashima Akihisa, a special advisor to PM Ishiba, has met with key figures in the incoming Trump administration. Nagashima said, “In the future, Japan must increase its defense expenditures beyond 2%,” according to the Mainichi Shimbun dated December 5, 2024. Ishiba also stated, “The more severe the security environment is, the more it is necessary for Japan to boost military spending,” at a meeting of the Upper House Budget Committee on December 6 of last year. Their statements indicate that they will step forward with a further arms buildup under the U.S. thumb at the expense of the people’s livelihoods.
It is essential to arouse public opinion so as not to allow a major military buildup. What stance each opposition party will take on this matter should be carefully watched.
Nuclear deterrence questioned
Another question is whether Japan’s Ishiba government, as the government of the only A-bombed country in the world, can play a role in international efforts to achieve a “world without nuclear weapons” without submitting to the demands of the United States.
Clinging to the U.S. nuclear umbrella, the Japanese government refuses to sign and ratify the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and even refuses to participate as an observer in the Conference of the State Parties to the treaty.
Allies which are under the U.S. nuclear umbrella one after another decided to attend meetings of TPNW state parties as observers, creating a situation that should incentivize Japan to join as an observer as well. Ishiba at a meeting of the Lower House Budget Committee on December 11, 2024 said, “I will verify (Japan’s observer participation) after carefully reading the minutes of the previous meetings.” The third meeting of State Parties to the TPNW will take place in New York in March. The international community is paying close attention to what decision Japan will make.
Make genuine friendship
As was mentioned earlier, dysfunction in the South Korean government may exert a significant impact on the relationship between Japan and South Korea.
Under the Yoon administration, Japan-South Korea relations showed “improvement”. However, it can be safely said that this “improvement” chiefly came out of the U.S. Biden administration’s intent to strengthen the military collaboration between the three countries to counter China and North Korea. As this year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII, the need is for Japan to establish a genuine friendship with South Korea, in addition to overcoming the unsettled, negative legacy of wartime Japan’s invasion and colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula.
Vicious cycle of military buildups
Regarding Japan-China relations, Prime Minister Ishiba, in an article which he released on the website of a U.S. conservative think tank just before he took office, proposed to create an “Asian version of NATO” which appears to be a suggestion to form an anti-China encirclement. He used China as the biggest excuse to go forward with a huge military buildup. China, as well, continues enhancing its conventional and nuclear forces. The vicious cycle of “military against military” has been accelerated.
On the other hand, after the inauguration of the Ishiba administration, the two nations’ leaders and foreign ministers held talks on November 15 and December 25, respectively. They confirmed that the two governments will promote a “strategic and mutually beneficial relationship” which includes an agreement to “not become a threat to each other”. Altghough the two countries have territorial and other pending issues, every issue can be solved peacefully. Japan and China should work to advance their diplomatic ties.
The U.S side is further hyping up the “China threat”. The U.S. military projects that China will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027, and uses this forecast as the biggest pretext to increase its military capability and alliance in the Indo-Pacific region. What Japan should do is not to push the military integration of Japan and the U.S. with a “Taiwan emergency” in mind, but to work on Washington and Beijing with a firm determination to “prevent war from erupting again”.
Put end to catastrophic wars: international community’s greatest challenge
The international community’s greatest challenge is to put an end to catastrophic wars: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip in Palestine.
Concerning Israel’s military operation in Gaza, the Japanese government voted for the UNGA resolutions demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and calling for Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories. The Japanese government also took a stance to condemn Israel for sabotaging the activities of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) which are said to be Gaza residents’ “lifeline”.
If this is the case, the Japanese government should earnestly make diplomatic efforts to implement these resolutions. More importantly, it should urge the U.S. to stop providing military aid to Israel without delay. There is no justification for Japan’s intent to purchase Israeli-made drones.
