March 18, 2013
Amid spreading concerns over global food shortages, an entry into the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement runs counter to an international trend to secure each country’s food sovereignty.
According to a report compiled by Japan’s agriculture ministry, the world’s cereal stock-to-use ratio in fiscal year 2012/13 is expected to be 18.6%, a decrease by 1.6 percentage point from the previous year. The Food and Agriculture Organization says that a “safe level” ratio is 17-18%.
During the period between 2006 and 2008, the ratio fell below the “safe level” due to a severe drought in Australia and unusual weather in Europe. As a result, food prices rose drastically and some countries imposed restrictions on the export of agricultural products in order to maintain a stable food supply domestically.
Longer term prospects indicate a tight supply-demand situation. A research institute of the agriculture ministry on March 8 released a forecast that food prices will remain high in 2020. Another outlook by the ministry indicates that global food production in 2050 needs to be increased by 1.55 times from the 2000 level, as the population and economies grow in India, China, and other countries, and that this will result in a substantial rise in food demand.
The ministry states that while food demand is projected to grow, the world will face difficulties in agricultural output due to climate change, abnormal weather, and water resource exhaustion. It asserts that stable food supply should be secured through promoting domestic production.
According to a report compiled by Japan’s agriculture ministry, the world’s cereal stock-to-use ratio in fiscal year 2012/13 is expected to be 18.6%, a decrease by 1.6 percentage point from the previous year. The Food and Agriculture Organization says that a “safe level” ratio is 17-18%.
During the period between 2006 and 2008, the ratio fell below the “safe level” due to a severe drought in Australia and unusual weather in Europe. As a result, food prices rose drastically and some countries imposed restrictions on the export of agricultural products in order to maintain a stable food supply domestically.
Longer term prospects indicate a tight supply-demand situation. A research institute of the agriculture ministry on March 8 released a forecast that food prices will remain high in 2020. Another outlook by the ministry indicates that global food production in 2050 needs to be increased by 1.55 times from the 2000 level, as the population and economies grow in India, China, and other countries, and that this will result in a substantial rise in food demand.
The ministry states that while food demand is projected to grow, the world will face difficulties in agricultural output due to climate change, abnormal weather, and water resource exhaustion. It asserts that stable food supply should be secured through promoting domestic production.
