March 20, 2013

An estimate released by the Hokkaido prefectural government on March 19 reveals that the number of Hokkaido farmers will decrease by half to 23,000 from 40,000 if Japan participates in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade pact.

Hokkaido Prefecture came up with the estimated impact of a zero-tariff deal on the Hokkaido economy involving eleven nations in TPP talks based on Hokkaido’s agricultural output in the FY 2008.

The estimate shows that agriculture related revenues will decrease by 493.1 billion yen; related industries such as the dairy industry will suffer a loss of 353.2 billion yen; 17,000 farming families will disappear from Hokkaido in which 40,000 families are currently in agriculture; and 112,000 people will lose their jobs. The impact study has come up with an unquestionably undesirable result, totaling more than 1.6 trillion yen in losses.

The Hokkaido prefectural government also made a trial calculation of the possible impacts on the fisheries and forestry industries. The result shows a decrease by 44.6 billion yen in revenues from eight fish species and by 3.3 billion yen in shipments of wood products.

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The New Zealand dairy industry association on March 16 issued a statement welcoming Japan’s entry into the TPP negotiations and called for the comprehensive abolition of tariffs.

New Zealand is looking for access to the Japanese dairy products market. The dairy prefecture of Hokkaido will receive a heavy blow if Japan joins the TPP.