May 23, 2013

The production volume in all industries will decrease by a total of 10.5 trillion yen due to repercussions associated with a decline in the agricultural production value if Japan’s tariffs are removed under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade agreement.

A study team composed of scholars from various universities on May 22 announced that it estimated the ripple effects of the TPP on all industries based on an expected reduction of about three trillion yen in agricultural and marine products according to recently released data by the government.

According to the estimate, the production value will drop by 3.8 trillion yen in the manufacturing industry and 938.2 billion yen in commerce. A resultant decrease in the number of persons engaged in all industries will amount to 1,902,000. The figure will be 1,465,000 in agriculture alone.

Japan will face a loss of 348.3 billion yen in agricultural earnings. Judging from an average annual income of about three trillion yen, the drop will account for 11.9% of total losses.

In regards to an impact on local economies, Hokkaido Prefecture, for example, will suffer a loss of 332.9 billion yen (32.9%) in agricultural output and 55.9 billion yen (15.6%) in income from agriculture. A decrease of 23 billion yen (35.1%) in rice output will hit Toyama Prefecture. The prefecture will also experience a reduction in income by 5.7 billion yen (26.3%). Kagoshima Prefecture will undergo a decrease of 98.7 billion yen (24.3 %) in the livestock industry alone and 11.9 billion yen (10.4%) in agricultural income.