Japan Press Weekly

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2014 November 12 - 18 [POLITICS]

Speculation over Diet dissolution comes out of the blue

Speculation over an impending dissolution of the House of Representatives and a subsequent snap general election has suddenly appeared, presumably with Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s support.

Abe has so far said he will make a decision early next month whether to increase the consumption tax rate to 10%, but nearly 80% of the general public oppose a further tax hike as shown in every recent opinion poll. The present tax rate of 8% which went up in April actually worsened the economy. A higher tax rate would deal another blow to the country’s economy and inevitably meet strong public criticism. With this situation at hand, the following scenario has emerged.

Prime Minister Abe dissolves the Lower House and calls a general election in exchange for the postponement of a tax increase, and after the election he forces through the reactivation of nuclear power plants with the Sendai plant (Kagoshima Pref.) as a starter, the implementation of the state secrets law, the development of laws toward Japan’s use of the right to collective self-defense, and Japan’s participation in the multilateral free-trade pact (TPP). He may have figured out that an election after these actions would be the demise of his administration in the face of even fiercer criticism from the general public.

NHK on November 10 released the results of its poll in which the answer “No” to approval of the “Abenomics” financial scheme outnumbered the answer “Yes” for the first time. The cabinet approval rating fell to 44%, down eight points from last month, the lowest since the inauguration of the second Abe government.

The sudden move for a snap general election is a consequence of public opinion and grassroots movements having driven the Abe administration into a corner. In other words, his government has exposed its fragile footing despite being the dominant force in the parliamentary diagram.

In response to the concerns being expressed by the financial community, the finance ministry, and hardliners within the Liberal Democratic Party, he is forced to postpone a tax rate increase until the chance comes following an LDP victory in a snap election.

Asked for comments by the press on the possibility of an impending dissolution of parliament, Japanese Communist Party Secretariat Head Yamashita Yoshiki on November 10 said, “Our party has been determined to bring down the Abe government since we held our 92nd anniversary meeting in July. If it comes to a general election, the JCP will energetically fight to make a significant advance.”