Japan Press Weekly

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2018 November 28 - December 4 [POLITICS]

Defense Ministry creates war scenario estimating survival rate of SDF personnel at 30%

The Defense Ministry examined a scenario for a battle between Self-Defense Force troops and enemies on Okinawa’s Ishigaki Island, calculating the survival rate of SDF personnel at 30%. This was revealed in November by a Japanese Communist Party parliamentarian.

JCP member of the House of Representatives Akamine Seiken on November 29 at a House Security Committee meeting presented an interim report which a Defense Ministry’s working group drew up regarding military preparations for defending nation’s remote islands, such as the Senkaku islands and Okianwa’s Sakishima islands.

In the report, the working group considered a war scenario which has its setting in Ishigaki Island in Okinawa.

The scenario begins with an attack from 4,500 enemy troops against 2,000 SDF members stationed at Ishigaki Island. Under the scenario, the 2000 SDF troops will continue fighting until the survival rate reaches 30%. After that, an additional 1,774 servicepersons will be sent to the island. The scenario predicts that while experiencing a heavy loss, the remaining 899 SDF personnel will succeed in overwhelming the enemy troops.

The scenario, however, states that the SDF deployment to the island is not primarily aimed at protecting islanders and excludes the protection of residents from the SDF duties. This brought to the mind the fact that in the 1945 Battle of Okinawa, the Imperial Japanese military abandoned residents, which led to the deaths of at least 120,000 Okinawans.

The Defense Ministry intends to push forward with the construction of a new SDF base in order to deploy 500-600 SDF personnel to Ishigaki Island in defiance of local opposition.

Fujii Sachiko of a residents’ group opposing the base construction said with an annoyed sigh, “I’m shocked at learning that the ministry already has a concrete combat plan. The ministry didn’t learn any lessons from the Battle of Okinawa where many innocent civilians were killed.” She went on to say, “But at the same time, the scenario has generated a widespread concern on the island. I’ll use the exposure of this dangerous plot to strengthen the anti-SDF base movement.”

Past related articles:
> 70% of Ishigaki residents sign petition opposing SDF deployment [June 1, 2017]
> DefMin puts pressure on local paper to not cover SDF news in Ishigaki-jima [March 1, 2014]