Japan Press Weekly

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2016 April 13 - 19 [ECONOMY]

Some prefectures estimate Japan’s rice production would fall due to TPP

It has come to light that the production value of domestic rice is expected to decrease by a total of 8.2 billion yen in five prefectures if the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact comes into effect. This estimation casts doubt upon the Abe government which is just presenting a rosy picture of the TPP agreement.

The five prefectures – Aomori, Fukui, Shiga, Wakayama, and Kumamoto – independently made trial calculations of the TPP’s effect on domestically produced rice. According to the calculations, the production value of the rice produced in those prefectures will go down by 8.22 billion yen in total.

On the other hand, the central government expects the free trade framework to have no harmful effect upon home-grown rice, insisting that rice imports would hardly increase.

Aomori Prefecture anticipates that the price of regional rice will drop due to the increase in imported rice. If the domestic rice price falls to the same level of imported rice, the production value of home-grown rice is expected to decline by about 2.3 billion yen.

Fukui Prefecture assumes that the price of local rice for industrial use will significantly drop as a result of price competition with imported rice. Along with a decline in the price of brand-name rice, the value of production in the prefecture is estimated to decrease by 1.52 billion yen.

If the Japanese parliament ratifies the TPP accord and it takes effect, Japan will be required to import a fixed amount of rice without tariffs. Shiga Prefecture anticipates that the amount of local rice in stock will increase due to the required import quota and consequently the domestic rice price will go down by 5%. The prefectural authorities estimate a decrease in the production value at 1.8 billion yen.

In contrast to the Abe administration’s overly optimistic assessment, these calculations show the serious damage the free trade deal will inflict on Japan’s agriculture.

Past related article:
> ISDS provisions in TPP will cause damage to Japanese local economies [April 3, 2016]